rebound

For Active Traders, 2010 Can’t Come Soon Enough

According to a recent online survey of more than 270 retail investors conducted by online broker TradeKing, most investors are writing off hopes of a recovery this year and looking to 2010 for relief.

In the survey conducted during the last week in October 2009, 47 percent of investors described their market outlook as “neutral” or “not sure,” which are among the highest levels reported since the survey’s inception in July 2007. Accordingly, most of those surveyed maintain a skeptical view of the Obama administration’s handling of financial market matters, with more than 62 percent of respondents saying the administration’s policies either make them feel “less confident in the market” or had “no effect at all” on their market confidence, up two percentage points from last quarter.

“One thing is certain: uncertainty dominates right now,” said Don Montanaro, Chairman and CEO of TradeKing. “We see at TradeKing how investors’ bullishness comes in the form of very specific moment-in-time opportunities, but the overall sense is that the market could go either way on any given day until we see some solid trending data signaling long-term recovery.”

Unemployment Remains #1 Trade Trigger for Second Consecutive Quarter

U.S. Unemployment Claims held fast as the top trade trigger for both equities and options traders, with 41 percent of respondents pointing to this issue as their primary concern. U.S. Housing, Consumer Spending and Interest Rates all tied for second at 30 percent. These concerns knocked Quarterly Earnings from its #2 spot last quarter, falling sharply from 36 percent to 27 percent in this most recent survey.

Energy and Technology Sectors Have Moved Up Sharply As Top Long Opportunities for Equities and Options Traders

For the sixth straight quarter, Energy remained the favorite sector for both equities and options traders as having the greatest potential for success in a long position for the coming quarter, followed closely by Technology.

• 58 percent of total respondents selected Energy as their top long play in the coming quarter, up from 49 percent in July. It was followed by Technology at 47 percent, which rose from 34 percent just three months ago.

From a short position, Transportation and Travel took top spot for the second consecutive quarter, followed by Finance and Retail as the most promising short plays.

• Transportation and Travel was selected by 24 percent of the respondents for the top overall sector to short, up from 19 percent last quarter. Finance took second at 23 percent and Retail came in third at 21 percent.

rebound

Markets Steam Ahead, Hiccup Notwithstanding

We just finished the best quarter in the market since 1998, and the best two quarters in a row since we came out of the 1987 market crash in a mere six months, according to The Wall Street Journal online. Granted there’s a lot to make up for – the market is still 31% off its October 2007 highs. But we’re up 48% from the March lows, 11% for the year, all in all beats the alternative. The last few days went down a bit, but every rally has its profit-taking moments. We had one in early July and then bounced right back. Let’s hope that’s all this is.

We are still going to have some bad economic news (like the unemployment data last week) and must accept that this recovery will be slowish. But in many ways, as I have said many times here, it’s up to us. Expectations drive a huge portion of the economy. If we get positive about the future, that will make the future more positive. Not to get all Tony Robbins on y’all, but it’s what they taught us in biz school. The next boost for confidence will probably be the arrival in the next few weeks of everyone’s quarterly 401(k) statements showing, hopefully, a solid increase in their retirement money. With the IPO market waking up, housing starts staying pretty strong, yes the stimulus money having some effect and the markets continuing their upward trend, I’m glad I renamed our site! Let’s just hope our government spending now gets into control so we don’t get hit in a year or two with…well, you know what…

rebound

Love This Question: “Do You Have the Capacity?”

One sign for me that things are really turning around in my area of the world – Wall Street and the middle market in particular: more than one client this week essentially asking the same question. “We have a bunch of deals  in the pipeline and want to work with you. Can you handle it?” Now, from those promises to the hoped for avalance  is going to be a little journey.

Luckily, we are already seeing things noticeably pick up. In addition to areas that have stayed strong in my practice throughout the difficult past year, the transactional work that slowed considerably is now picking up considerably. We’re working on acquisitions, reverse mergers, self-filings, private placements, public underwritings and even new partnerships getting started. Honestly, there was virtually none of this stuff in early 2009. So this is good.

Is this a “fool’s rally” in the stock markets as some have said? Is the economy and market about to take a second dip? Is the recovery going to look more like a soup ladle (as I have suggested) or some up and down letter of the alphabet? Yes, again I annoy my faithful blogees with great questions and no answers. But for now, I’m enjoying being busier!

rebound

Survey Says One-Story Homes in the Suburbs Will Be the Most Popular During Rebound

A survey released today reveals that 55+ Americans would prefer suburban living in single-story homes with amenities, particularly high-speed Internet access, for their later years, and they don’t consider “universal” design a priority. These are some of the findings from 55+ Housing: Builders, Buyers, and Beyond, a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the MetLife Mature Market Institute, which asked owners and renters about their current homes and the types of homes, communities and features they prefer as they age.

The survey also questioned builders about specific features provided in new homes and how much customers are willing to pay for them, which revealed interesting contrasts. While builders seem to be providing more universal design features (lever-handle/door knobs, wider doors and hallways, a full bath at the entry level), consumer preferences don’t reflect an equal appreciation of such items. Consumers indicate they want amenities such as non-slip floors, larger medicine cabinets, lower kitchen cabinets and emergency call buttons, but those features are not as widely included in new homes.

On other issues, builders and consumers are closer to agreement. Consumers clearly want to be close to community resources like shopping and medical services; builders and developers have responded by placing communities accordingly. Builders are providing more energy-efficient and environmentally sensitive features. While many consumers note that they are conceptually supportive of these efforts, fewer indicate a willingness to pay significantly more for “green” homes.

“The data suggests that builders will have to be more tuned in to consumer needs, but potential buyers may be somewhat shortsighted as well,” said Sandra Timmermann, Ed.D., director of the MetLife Mature Market Institute. “The homes consumers say they want may present difficulties for the long term as they age in place. They prefer the suburbs and the country, but these areas generally lack public transportation. Universal design is not a strong preference, but they’ll need greater accessibility later on. Aside from recognizing that one-story homes will be best for their later years, customers may be somewhat unrealistic.”

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe pointed out that as the housing market returns to health, builders will need to be increasingly responsive to changes in the market for 55+ housing.

“These surveys were conducted as consumers were watching their savings shrink and as builders were seeing sales grind to a halt,” said Crowe. “So this study reflects the very latest in the changing perceptions of what is most important in housing for this age cohort.”

Other survey findings included the following:

• One-third of consumer respondents would choose a close-in suburb and nearly another third prefer an outlying suburb. About one-quarter would choose a rural community and 9% prefer a center-city setting. Single-story homes are a clear first choice among respondents (79%) over two-story (15%) or split-levels (6%).
• While conventional wisdom dictates that older buyers would be looking to downsize, most consumers say they’d like their next home to be the same size as their current one.
• The five features rated most important by consumers were: in-home washers and dryers, storage space, windows that open easily, main level master bedrooms and easy-to-use climate controls.
• Eighty-three percent of consumer respondents rated high-speed Internet as somewhat to very important.
• While consumers expressed a preference for maintenance-free lifestyles, with services such as interior and exterior home repair, transportation, housecleaning, etc., few builders offer such services, which depart from their primary business of construction.
• Twenty-seven percent of potential buyers say they are not concerned about the impact of home building on the environment. Another 23% are concerned, but say that will not be a consideration when they make a purchase, and 37% of consumers responded that want an “environment-friendly” home, but would not pay extra for it. Only 12% said they would be willing to pay more.
• Ninety-four percent of builders report that their buyers want more energy-efficient new homes; 55% said buyers specifically want EnergyStar®-rated homes. Twenty-five percent of builders said buyers want homes with more recycled materials and less materials overall. Most builders (69%) indicated that some of their buyers are willing to pay extra for green amenities; 9% indicated that most were. The remaining 22% said none of their buyers were willing to pay extra for green amenities.