economic recovery

The Soup Ladle Recovery?

As mentioned in a prior post, I have begun suggesting that the recovery might be in the form of a soup ladle, think about its shape. Pretty stiff downturn followed by very slow but prolonged recovery. How do I know? I don’t. I simply sit in my armchair and pontificate. I’m not an economist (nor did I excel at economics at Wharton), and when I hear “chief economists” give speeches with 30 pages of charts I tend to listen by imagining myself on a quiet beach with the ocean lapping up in front of me.

But from my armchair, some thoughts. The economy will recover. There is no doubt. The business cycle will never be broken, despite some thinking that was the case during at least the last two recoveries. I’m sure people thought during the Depression that it would never end. And then there were not the many stopgaps and protections against crisis that now exist (although we had a little scare there for awhile last fall).  The stock market also will recover fully. Since 1929, it has always been better during any 10 year period to invest in large cap equities than just about any other thing.

So the only question: when will the economic and market recovery start and how long will it take to hit full steam? Some say it will be 5 years before things are better. Some say we are already beginning to come out of things. And everything in between. We have taken a big hit during this recession. No “soft landing” this. So yes there will be a recovery, but because of the damage done in virtually every sector (the last downturn didn’t effect real estate too much, for example), I think it will take longer to come back. But come back it will. So slow and steady is what seems to be in order. I hope to be proven wrong, and we shoot back in a “V” recovery as some have predicted, but that doesn’t seem likely. The stimulus will ultimately help, but not so much as to make the recovery come fast. And the cost in terms of future debt is for others to assess the cost-benefit.

I think a soup ladle recovery, which maybe starts around the end of this year, would be OK with me.

economic recovery

Beverly Hills Shows Brightspot

Beverly Hills remains a buzz of business activity, with new businesses opening and expanding throughout the city. In a time of economic disarray throughout the world, Beverly Hills is weathering the storm better than most because of its superior name and reputation. Businesses venturing to open or expand during this uncertain time have chosen to do so in Beverly Hills because of the sustaining value and appeal of the Beverly Hills brand.

Beverly Hills welcomed its first new luxury hotel in sixteen years last November, Montage Beverly Hills. Hosting Oscar parties and celebrity birthdays, Montage Beverly Hills has quickly established itself as the newest location for luxury lounging in Beverly Hills. A block up from Montage Beverly Hills on N. Canon Drive is Via Alloro, the fifth and newest Drago restaurant in Beverly Hills.

“Via Alloro is my newest restaurant in Beverly Hills,” stated Giacomino Drago, Chef and Co-Owner of the recently opened Via Alloro. “Business is going well and Via Alloro has been warmly welcomed to the community.”

Several new players in town are taking an organic approach to their new business. The Organic Pharmacy, newly-opened on N. Beverly Drive, presents organic glam – organic products and opportunities to “glam it up.” Down the street on S. Beverly Drive, Cabbage Patch offers farm fresh organic fare and is the popular new stop for lunch with long lines worth the wait.

In a world experiencing economic contraction, businesses in Beverly Hills are expanding their local reach. Domenico Vacca, known for its fine Italian men’s and women’s handmade luxury goods, relocated and expanded to Rodeo Drive. Anthropologie, featuring unique and worldly clothing and goods, moved from N. Beverly Drive to S. Beverly Drive, almost doubling its retail space in Beverly Hills.

The famed Rodeo Drive, with an occupancy rate nearing 95%, has experienced many recent additions, including Loro Piana, MaxMara, and Miu Miu. Two jewelers opened West Coast flagship locations on Rodeo Drive, including vintage jewelry expert Fred Leighton, which opened its first California store on the 300 block of Rodeo Drive in December 2008, and Swiss watch company IWC Schaffhausen, which opened its first Los Angeles boutique in October 2008 at the intersection of Rodeo Drive and Brighton Way.