Retailers Brace for Cold Sales and Hiring this Holiday Season

According to a recent survey by Hay Group, 72 percent of retailers predict holiday sales will be about the same or lower than last year. As a result, 57 percent of retailers are reducing staffing levels for the 2009 holiday season — a dramatic shift compared to only 29 percent that decreased staffing levels last year.

Hay Group’s survey, in its third year, analyzed responses from 25 top U.S. retailers including American Eagle Outfitters, Best Buy, Saks Fifth Avenue and Target in September 2009 to understand retailers’ plans for the 2009 holiday season.

According to the survey, 62 percent of retailers are seeing more seasonal applicants this year, however, 40 percent are hiring fewer seasonal workers, and 64 percent already have lower than normal staffing levels.

“With sales numbers down and consumers spending less, planning holiday staffing needs has been difficult for retailers this year,” said Craig Rowley, Vice President and Global Practice Leader for Hay Group’s Retail practice. “Retailers are doing what they can to survive the season, but more importantly, if the consumer decides to go on a spending spree this season, they are poised to respond fast with merchandise and staff.”

Among the highlights from the September 2009 Hay Group retail survey:

• Seasonal Worker Staffing Levels: Compared to last year, 48 percent of respondents are planning to hire the same amount of seasonal workers for the holiday season, and 40 percent are planning to hire five percent to 25 percent fewer workers. The majority of respondents (60 percent) indicate that the ratio of permanent to seasonal store employees is about the same as last year; however, 32 percent indicate that they plan to hire fewer seasonal workers and more permanent staff.
• Sales Expectations: Retail sales expectations are lower for this holiday season – 36 percent of respondents expect sales to be about the same as last year, and 34 percent expect sales to decrease by five percent to 25 percent. Some retailers (28 percent) remain optimistic this year and expect an increase in sales, however this is a drastic drop from the 60 percent of retailers that expected an increase in sales this time last year.
• Store Promotions: Retailers have changed their promotion strategy in response to current economic conditions, with 43 percent of respondents indicating that they will be running more promotions and/or deeper discounts this year. Stores have also shifted their focus from running the most store promotions on Black Friday (35 percent, compared to 45 percent last year), and will instead run consistent store promotions from now until New Year’s Day (43 percent of respondents). In addition, 13 percent of respondents indicate they will run the most promotions in mid December leading up to Christmas, and nine percent will run the most promotions on the day after Christmas.

“Retailers are planning for a challenging Christmas season, and to avoid the massive markdowns they had to take last year, they have reduced inventory and staffing levels to control costs,” added Rowley. “That said, retailers have their fingers crossed that they are wrong.”

Love This Question: “Do You Have the Capacity?”

One sign for me that things are really turning around in my area of the world – Wall Street and the middle market in particular: more than one client this week essentially asking the same question. “We have a bunch of deals  in the pipeline and want to work with you. Can you handle it?” Now, from those promises to the hoped for avalance  is going to be a little journey.

Luckily, we are already seeing things noticeably pick up. In addition to areas that have stayed strong in my practice throughout the difficult past year, the transactional work that slowed considerably is now picking up considerably. We’re working on acquisitions, reverse mergers, self-filings, private placements, public underwritings and even new partnerships getting started. Honestly, there was virtually none of this stuff in early 2009. So this is good.

Is this a “fool’s rally” in the stock markets as some have said? Is the economy and market about to take a second dip? Is the recovery going to look more like a soup ladle (as I have suggested) or some up and down letter of the alphabet? Yes, again I annoy my faithful blogees with great questions and no answers. But for now, I’m enjoying being busier!

Consumers Have Permanently Changed Their Saving and Spending Habits

A new nationwide survey issued today by Citi revealed that consumers across all socioeconomic levels and ethnic groups have made permanent spending and savings adjustments to adapt to the current economic situation. According to the data, 63 percent of Americans surveyed said the way they spend and save has been forever changed as a result of the economic downturn. Only 29 percent said spending and saving would go back to the way it was before the recession.

Citi conducted this nationwide poll as part of its ongoing effort to better understand changes in the needs of the consumers and communities the company serves.

The survey also found that consumers across all income levels and ethnic groups said they plan to continue their adjusted spending and saving habits. More specifically:

• Fifty-nine percent will continue to cut back on everyday expenses.
• Sixty percent will continue to save and invest more.
• Sixty-one percent will continue to cut down on credit card purchases.
• Sixty-three percent will continue to reduce the amount of money they owe.

Eric Eve, Senior Vice President, Global Community Relations at Citi, said, “This new survey points to a profound shift in the way people think about their saving and spending. The current economic environment is altering, perhaps permanently, the way we think about spending money. As Citi changes the way it does business to reflect the new economic realities, it’s important we continue to understand how our customers also have been affected by the economic challenges and pressures they currently face.”

Adjustments Being Made Across All Income Levels

People across all income levels and ethnic groups in the survey said they have made adjustments to the way they spend and save because of the current economic situation.

According to the data, across all income levels:

• Seventy-five percent have cut back on everyday expenses.
• Sixty-two percent have cut down on credit card purchases.
• Fifty-seven percent have reduced the amount of money they owe.
• Fifty-three percent have postponed the purchase of a major item such as an automobile.
• Forty-two percent are taking money out of savings or investments to help pay expenses.
• Thirty-four percent are saving and investing more.

More specifically, those who earn less than $50,000 were most likely to cut back on everyday expenses (80 percent), followed by 76 percent for those who earn $50,000 – $75,000. But even at the top of the income scale, people are making adjustments and cutting back on everyday expenses – 70 percent for those who earn more than $150,000 and 68 percent for those who earn $75,000 – $150,000.

In addition, those in the highest income level were more likely (33 percent) than those in the lowest level (27 percent) to think about postponing retirement due to their economic situation.

African Americans, Hispanics Have Made Greater Adjustments; 40 Percent Working Longer Hours to Make Ends Meet

Despite the spending and savings adjustments being made across all income levels, according to the survey, more African Americans and Hispanics than the national sample have cut back on credit card purchases and have taken money out of savings to pay for expenses. In addition, these ethnic groups said they have been working longer hours to make ends meet and have sought additional education to increase their employment opportunities.

• Sixty-eight percent of African Americans and 66 percent of Hispanics have cut down on credit card purchases (compared to 62 percent of the national sample).
• Forty-seven percent of African Americans and 45 percent of Hispanics have taken money out of savings or investments to help pay expenses (compared to 42 percent of the national sample).
• Forty percent of both African Americans and Hispanics are working longer hours to make ends meet (compared to 32 percent of the national sample).
• Eighty-two percent of African Americans have cut back on everyday expenses (compared to 76 percent of Hispanics and 75 percent of the national sample).
• Thirty-six percent of both African Americans and Hispanics have sought additional education to increase opportunities (compared to 21 percent of the national sample).

Eve added, “Keeping our finger on the pulse of how the economy is affecting our customers and the communities in which they live and work is especially important now, when people are changing the way they spend and save.”

Small Business Optimism Grows

More than half of entrepreneurs have an optimistic outlook on near-term business prospects, up from 45% in March 2009, according to the American Express OPEN Small Business Monitor, a semi-annual survey of business owners. One quarter report expanding opportunities for their business, up from 15% from a year ago, but six in ten do not think the worst of the U.S. economic woes are over, and nearly one in six say they risk going out of business in the next six months because of the economy.

“There appears to be a dichotomy where many small businesses are seeing signs of improvement while other firms are still struggling to make payroll,” said Susan Sobbott, president American Express OPEN. “For the first time since 2007, the majority of small businesses are optimistic about the near-term future, in part because of less competition, however some of the less healthy firms are dipping into cash reserves and personal assets to stem the tide of declining sales.”

Among those businesses reporting growth opportunities for their firms, 44% say these opportunities come as a result of less competition. The ability to renegotiate equipment leases and supply contracts (13%) and lower real estate costs (12%) also contributed to these firms’ growth mindset. Overall, when asked for the primary way they address cash flow issues, 32% of business owners said they use personal or private funds, up 9 percentage points from March. More than a third (35%) say the recession has caused them to tap personal assets, on-par with the March reading (37%).

Although small business optimism is on the upswing after hitting its all-time low a year ago, the American Express OPEN Small Business Monitor shows that business are not shifting to hiring mode. This fall, just under one quarter have plans to hire (23% vs. 28% this spring), which is the lowest reading in the history of the Monitor (falling below the fall 2002 recession level of 26%), and plans for capital investments equal the record setting low from Spring 2009 (42%).

With hiring and capital investment plans on hold for most, business owners are taking a conservative, back-to-basics approach to managing their firms:

• Concentrating on current customers. Forty-one percent of small business owners say their top priority over the next six months is maintaining current sources of revenue. By comparison, only one quarter (26%) say they are focused on growing their business, which is the lowest number for growth in Monitor history.
• Avoiding risk. Half (49%) say they are not willing to take on financial risk to grow their business, an all-time high for the Monitor.
• Keeping employees happy. In general, deteriorating employee morale has plateaued. Only twelve percent say employee morale has worsened over the last six months (down from 25% for the preceding six-month period.) Three-quarters say morale has stayed the same, and nine percent say it has improved. In addition, approximately one in three (28%) business owners see offering financial incentives such as bonuses and paid time off as a way to increase employee morale, and twenty-three percent see more regular communication about the business as the key to improving morale.

In addition, business owners continue to do everything they can to protect their employees. For example, thirty-five percent of small business owners have tapped personal assets as a result of the recession, twenty-seven percent have stopped taking a salary and seventeen percent are working a second job, comparable to six months ago. At the same time, fewer business owners are laying people off (15%, down from 23% in the spring) or cutting benefits (8%, versus 16% this spring).

Even as hiring plans are not in the cards for most business owners, the nearly one quarter planning to hire are upbeat. These business owners are more willing to think the economy creates new opportunities for their business (36% vs. 31% overall) and seek out alternative tactics to manage their business. In addition, more than three quarters (78%, compared to 65% overall) of those hiring will use online marketing techniques to boost business and nearly half (46%, vs. 39% overall) will negotiate flexible payment methods with their suppliers/vendors. On average, entrepreneurs with hiring plans work about one-half hour longer per day than business owners overall (more than 11 hours 45 minutes vs. 11 hours 15 minutes).

Regardless of hiring plans, one in ten business owners (11%) say they have recently hired someone who was laid off from another company because of the recession.

Economy takes toll on entrepreneurs

As business owners work to navigate their firms through the current economic climate, they are plagued by cash flow concerns and the overall stress a challenging economy creates. Nearly seven in ten entrepreneurs (68%) are “stressed out” by the economy and three in ten (31%) say that the current economy has caused them to question their decision to become an entrepreneur.

The number of entrepreneurs experiencing cash flow issues this fall (60%) is up slightly over both the previous fall (55%) and this spring (57%). The biggest cash flow worry for business owners is the ability to pay bills on time (26%). When cash flow concerns arise, business owners are most likely to dip into their own pockets: 32% of business owners will use personal or private funds, and one in four (25%) will put off purchases. Others will use credit or charge cards (13%), obtain and use a line of credit (12%), lease rather than purchase business equipment (4%), or get a short-term loan in order to improve cash flow (3%).

Looking beyond the basic issue of cash flow, nearly half of entrepreneurs (45%) are looking to access capital from external sources in order to run their businesses. One out of five business owners (19%) say they are experiencing difficulty accessing capital. To secure the funds they need, business owners are tapping a variety of sources, including using a bank loan (14%), using business or personal credit cards (each 13%), tapping personal savings (10%), borrowing from a friend or family member (3%), and private equity/venture capital or home equity (each 2%).

Outlook varies by industry, age, gender, and region

Examining business owners by generation, industry sector, region and gender provides further perspective on the economy. The American Express Small Business OPEN Monitor studies three key industry sectors: retail, manufacturing and services as well as the three generational age groups: Generation Y (18-28), Generation X (29-44) and Baby Boomers (45-63), entrepreneurs by gender and by geographic region.

As the holiday shopping season approaches, businesses in the retail sector are the least optimistic group of business owners across these industries. This fall, more than half of services businesses (58%, up from 53% last fall) maintain a positive outlook, versus just half of manufacturers (51%, on par with 52% in fall 2008) and just under half of retailers (47% on par with 48% last fall). The effect of the economy can be seen to have varying effects across industries:

• Retailers are more likely to have hiring plans, due to the upcoming holiday season, (27%, on par with 28% last fall) when compared to other industry sectors (22% of manufacturers down from 30% last fall and 17% of services businesses down substantially from 44% last fall)
• Services businesses are more concerned with cash flow issues (63% vs. 52% last fall) versus other industries (60% of retailers up from 56% last fall, and 61% of manufacturers up significantly from 47% last fall)
• The services sector is more likely than other industry sectors to have capital investment plans (39% down from 45% last fall) compared to 36% of manufacturers down from 59% last fall and 34% of retailers down from 37% last fall
• The manufacturing sector is more likely to say that the worst of US economic woes are not over compared to other industry sectors (68%, vs. 64% of retailers and 56% of services
• Manufacturers and retailers are the most likely to be willing to take a financial risk (each 55%) when compared to services businesses (40%)

Gen Y geared for growth, Gen X most “stressed out” and Boomers are cash strapped

Generally speaking, the experience of older and more seasoned entrepreneurs puts them in a better position than younger entrepreneurs to manage through downturns. According to the American Express OPEN Small Business Monitor, however, the tables have turned, and it’s younger business owners who are geared for growth.

The survey found that Gen Y is the most optimistic group of entrepreneurs when compared to other age groups and to the overall sample of business owners. More than three-quarters (80%) of these entrepreneurs have a significantly more positive outlook on business prospects versus Gen X and business owners overall (each 55%), and Baby Boomers (52%).

The optimism of Gen Y entrepreneurs extends across a number of areas:

• They’re most likely to hire (36%, vs. 25% of Gen X and 20% of Boomers )
• They’re most likely to have capital investment plans (58%, vs. 41% of Gen X and 39% of Boomers)
• They’re most willing to take a financial risk (67%, vs. 52% of Gen X and 47% of Boomers)
• They’re least likely to have cash flow issues (53% versus 59% for Gen X and 64% of Baby Boomers)
• They’re least stressed out by the economy (57% versus 72% of Gen X’ers and 71% of Boomers)
• They’re most likely to implement employee-friendly policies to battle the recession. Gen Y will allow employees to maintain a flexible schedule (44%), Baby Boomers will institute a hiring freeze (41%) and Gen X entrepreneurs will institute a salary freeze (39%)

Women more upbeat than their male counterparts

No less revealing than examining the mindset of entrepreneurs by age, gender also plays a role in shaping the outlook of a business owner.

• Women are more likely to have a positive outlook on business prospects considering the economic climate (60%, vs. 50% of men)
• Women are more likely to have cash flow concerns (62%, vs. 57% of men)
• Women are also more likely to have difficulty accessing the capital they need to run their business (26%, vs. 16% of men)
• Men are more willing to take financial risks (47%, vs. 40% of women)
• One third of men say the current economy creates new opportunities for business (34%, vs. 29% of women)

Businesses in the Northeast struggling to stay afloat; West is most optimistic Along with age, gender and industry sectors, geography plays a significant role in business owners’ outlook on business prospects and the economy:

• The west is most optimistic (60%, vs. 54% in north central states, 53% in the northeast and 52% in the south); businesses in the northeast are most at risk of going out of business (24%, vs. 19% in north central states, 17% in the west and 13% in the south)
• The south is most willing to hire (31%, vs. 22% in the west, 17% in the northeast and 15% in north central states)
• The south is also most likely to take on a financial risk (55%, vs. 50% in north central states, 44% in the west and 38% in the northeast)
• The north central states are most likely to make capital investments (48%, vs. 43% in the west, 41% in the south and 36% in the northeast)
• The northeast is most likely to have cash flow issues (69%, vs. 60% in the south, 58% in the west and 55% in north central states)
• The northeast is also most likely to question their decision to become an entrepreneur (39%, vs. 31% in the south, 30% in the west and 25% in north central states)

Thoughts as the UN Traffic Recedes

Those of us who live or work in Manhattan secretly dread it. UN Week. Every year around this time an amazing thing happens as the leaders of virtually every world country descend on the Big Apple. The good, the bad, the ugly, everyone from the residents of the axis of evil to mild-mannered Luxembourg, from the snappiest of three-piece suits to the silkiest of robes and turbans. And of course the US President. Amazing yes, but the traffic. As my grandmother, rest her soul, used to say, “Oy!” I give the NYPD tremendous credit for how they handle it. They set up special lanes for the motorcades that have semi-minimal impact as they go through. But there are times you just sit there. For 45 minutes. For the President to pass through. Mr. Obama apologized to the residents of New York for the difficulties. Whatever your political leanings, this guy likes New York, and that’s good and bad. He’s been here for several days. George Bush? He would jet in and out same day. It was a big deal for the guy to stay over. But enough about traffic.

The intractable Mideast crisis was center stage this week, as it usually is during UN Week. Qaddafi annoying everyone by talking 90 minutes instead of his alloted 15, having the nerve to interfere with lunch. Some called it rambling and eccentric, others said it was detailed and in-depth.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad slightly softening his rhetoric and deciding not to mention his repeated assertion that the Holocaust did not happen and, oh yeah, Israel should be wiped off the map if at all possible, and oh yeah, we’re building nukes whether the rest of you guys like it or not. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu telling the delegates they should be ashamed for letting the other two guys in at all.

Where the Mideast problem goes a big chunk of the world economy goes. It’s mostly, well maybe almost all, about oil, for those of you who’ve been living under a rock. And yes, kind of a little about religion and ideology. A bunch of US Presidents have tried and failed to solve it, despite a few notable breakthroughs.  The moderate Arab states secretly are OK with Israel existing if both sides would just leave each other alone. But they do it secretly cause their whole oil cartel would fall apart if they upset the radical Arab states. And the moderates also know that any violence or nuking by the radicals also would destroy their trillion dollar enterprise because we would stop doing business with them and, well, maybe nuke them back.

So the good news is that no one has nuked each other, and the violence so far has been mostly limited to Israel and the Palestinians, not counting Iraq and Afghanistan for this purpose, although one can argue there is a connection. I am not an expert on this scene, I admit. But it seems to me that if Israel and Hamas can acknowledge each other’s right to exist in peace, and allow passage so that people of all faiths can visit their sacred sites, can’t that work? Israel should be able to defend its borders, and it’s not at all clear why they are required to give back land they rightfully possess. But if that’s what it takes to have a true, lasting peace, they should do it – the problem of course being once you give the land back, if things don’t work out violence continues and yet the land is gone. Unfortunately the Palestinians benefit in a way from the continued violence. Their Arab patrons keep giving them money and they can control their people more forcefully “in time of war.” Israel really does not benefit. Maybe we are close. Unfortunately I don’t think so, and the instability damages not only our psyche, but our ability to conduct commerce.

Survey Says One-Story Homes in the Suburbs Will Be the Most Popular During Rebound

A survey released today reveals that 55+ Americans would prefer suburban living in single-story homes with amenities, particularly high-speed Internet access, for their later years, and they don’t consider “universal” design a priority. These are some of the findings from 55+ Housing: Builders, Buyers, and Beyond, a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the MetLife Mature Market Institute, which asked owners and renters about their current homes and the types of homes, communities and features they prefer as they age.

The survey also questioned builders about specific features provided in new homes and how much customers are willing to pay for them, which revealed interesting contrasts. While builders seem to be providing more universal design features (lever-handle/door knobs, wider doors and hallways, a full bath at the entry level), consumer preferences don’t reflect an equal appreciation of such items. Consumers indicate they want amenities such as non-slip floors, larger medicine cabinets, lower kitchen cabinets and emergency call buttons, but those features are not as widely included in new homes.

On other issues, builders and consumers are closer to agreement. Consumers clearly want to be close to community resources like shopping and medical services; builders and developers have responded by placing communities accordingly. Builders are providing more energy-efficient and environmentally sensitive features. While many consumers note that they are conceptually supportive of these efforts, fewer indicate a willingness to pay significantly more for “green” homes.

“The data suggests that builders will have to be more tuned in to consumer needs, but potential buyers may be somewhat shortsighted as well,” said Sandra Timmermann, Ed.D., director of the MetLife Mature Market Institute. “The homes consumers say they want may present difficulties for the long term as they age in place. They prefer the suburbs and the country, but these areas generally lack public transportation. Universal design is not a strong preference, but they’ll need greater accessibility later on. Aside from recognizing that one-story homes will be best for their later years, customers may be somewhat unrealistic.”

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe pointed out that as the housing market returns to health, builders will need to be increasingly responsive to changes in the market for 55+ housing.

“These surveys were conducted as consumers were watching their savings shrink and as builders were seeing sales grind to a halt,” said Crowe. “So this study reflects the very latest in the changing perceptions of what is most important in housing for this age cohort.”

Other survey findings included the following:

• One-third of consumer respondents would choose a close-in suburb and nearly another third prefer an outlying suburb. About one-quarter would choose a rural community and 9% prefer a center-city setting. Single-story homes are a clear first choice among respondents (79%) over two-story (15%) or split-levels (6%).
• While conventional wisdom dictates that older buyers would be looking to downsize, most consumers say they’d like their next home to be the same size as their current one.
• The five features rated most important by consumers were: in-home washers and dryers, storage space, windows that open easily, main level master bedrooms and easy-to-use climate controls.
• Eighty-three percent of consumer respondents rated high-speed Internet as somewhat to very important.
• While consumers expressed a preference for maintenance-free lifestyles, with services such as interior and exterior home repair, transportation, housecleaning, etc., few builders offer such services, which depart from their primary business of construction.
• Twenty-seven percent of potential buyers say they are not concerned about the impact of home building on the environment. Another 23% are concerned, but say that will not be a consideration when they make a purchase, and 37% of consumers responded that want an “environment-friendly” home, but would not pay extra for it. Only 12% said they would be willing to pay more.
• Ninety-four percent of builders report that their buyers want more energy-efficient new homes; 55% said buyers specifically want EnergyStar®-rated homes. Twenty-five percent of builders said buyers want homes with more recycled materials and less materials overall. Most builders (69%) indicated that some of their buyers are willing to pay extra for green amenities; 9% indicated that most were. The remaining 22% said none of their buyers were willing to pay extra for green amenities.

One Hot Area of Opportunity for Lawyers: Government

Some feel President Obama believes that only “big government” can solve the nation’s problems. Others think he’s only temporarily increasing its size to help the economy, and after all, George W. Bush is the one who sent the deficit above $1 trillion. And everything in between.

When I was in Washington in early February I saw it already. With the economy elsewhere in tatters, a ton of new construction was going on and there was clearly a feeling of economic revival of sorts. This is good for lots of people, but in particular lawyers. According to the ABA Journal online, the government needs to hire 270,000 lawyers. That’s a whole lot! The report also indicates that there are five other “mission critical” areas where a lot of hiring is coming, including the medical, law enforcement and technology fields. It’s not all about the stimulus, in many cases there is simply an aging government worker population and many are beginning to retire.

Even with so many lawyers out of work, the report suggests it may still be difficult for the government to lure lawyers away from much higher-paying private sector jobs. Given the resumes I see from talented attorneys without jobs, I think this may be the best hiring moment for the government in a long time.

Employers Put Costs at the Top of Health Care Reform Priority List

With health care reform efforts ramping up after the summer break, many of the nation’s employers are focusing on the action in Congress and plan to adjust their benefit strategies based on how final legislation affects their costs, according to a survey of 433 HR and benefit executives from midsize and large organizations conducted by professional services firm Towers Perrin. Employers say they will not absorb any additional costs that result from reform and plan to take actions to avoid doing so, including reducing benefits, raising prices for customers and/or reducing head count.

Although not as outspoken in the reform process as many stakeholders in the health care industry, employers are watching Washington closely, with 80% monitoring developments. Nearly one in four companies (23%) in the survey are currently rethinking benefit changes in light of possible reforms, and nearly all (89%) plan to reexamine their health benefit strategies for active employees in response to the passage of health care reform legislation. And while talent management considerations such as productivity, workforce health, and recruiting and retention remain important even in a tough economy, cost issues will dominate employers’ decision making in a post-reform world, according to the survey.

“With employer health care costs rising more than 150% over the last decade, it’s no surprise that 90% of employers list cost containment as the most important health care reform goal,” said Dave Guilmette, Managing Director of the Towers Perrin Health and Welfare practice. “ Many large employers, however, feel that current reform proposals are focused on other health care issues — such as expanding coverage and reforming certain insurance practices — and they feel they have already addressed these issues within their own workforces.”

In addition, employers do not expect that reform as currently proposed will address some of the fundamental drivers of health care costs. For example, nearly two-thirds of employers (65%) believe that health care reform will have little or no impact on consumer behaviors, an area many leading employers have begun to target as one of their key cost-containment opportunities.

Nevertheless, among health care proposals currently on the table, 53% of employers believe that research on effectiveness of alternative treatments will have a positive impact on their business by, over time, influencing the quality of care, and 44% believe that reforming the health insurance market to ensure guaranteed access to coverage regardless of health status will have a positive impact. However, nearly half (47%) of survey respondents believe that an employer “pay or play” mandate would have a negative impact on businesses.

“The way employers would respond to reform proposals that raise or lower their costs is one of our most telling findings — one that could conceivably impact economic recovery,” said Guilmette. “With companies struggling to manage rapidly escalating health care costs and reclaim profits, only 11% of companies would agree to absorb increased health care costs by reducing their profits. The overwhelming majority of companies would respond to higher costs by reducing the benefits their employees receive.”

Despite the sharp focus on costs, the survey respondents express strong positive views on the importance of workforce health to business success, the role of health benefits in the rewards portfolio and the opportunities benefit programs provide in influencing workforce health. Notably, a majority (61%) say they would stand by their commitments to employee wellness and health promotion programs even if they no longer offered medical benefits (under the “pay” option of a pay-or-play mandate, for example).

“For many companies and in certain industries, health benefits are viewed as critical to the total rewards package,” says Ron Fontanetta, Towers Perrin Principal. “These programs provide important levers in managing talent and supporting other key business objectives.“

Towers Perrin’s Health Care Reform Pulse Survey also examined the experience of employers based in Massachusetts, a state that has imposed a pay-or-play mandate on employers and a coverage mandate on individuals similar to those currently proposed in Congress. Among those employers, most are not sure what, if any, impact the three-year-old Massachusetts mandates have had. Most respondents have seen little or no change in employee or employer health care costs or access to or quality of care. Notably, however, more than two-thirds of these employers report that their administrative burdens have increased.

Among the full survey group, employers expect they would respond to a pay-or-play mandate in the following ways:

• 37% of employers would provide company-sponsored health coverage that substantially exceeds the standard.
• 29% of employers would discontinue company-sponsored health coverage and pay the assessment if the per-employee costs of payments to the federal government were substantially lower than their current costs.
• 26% of employers would provide company-sponsored health coverage at the level of the minimum standard required.

New Name for a Changing Economy

It’s finally happened. When we started what was then known as Crisis Post, our hope from the beginning was to outgrow our name when the economy began to rebound. Frankly, in March 2009 when we started, it seemed like we would be Crisis Post for quite awhile indeed.

Well, I am pleased and relieved to officially change the name of my humble blog to Rebound Post.  Don’t worry, the old crisipost.com URL will still connect here. We will remain your source for information on the economy,  the President and his economic policies, Wall Street, scammers, reverse mergers and other alternatives to traditional IPOs, the legal industry, the world scene and just plain musings- now focused more on thoughts connected to the now recovering economy and stock market. I know it seems like an eclectic and disjointed set of topics. I pretty much don’t care as it is a list of things I am interested in and enjoy writing about. I hope you find some (or all!) areas of our focus that will strike you as kinda interesting.

As you may have discerned from my posts, I am a diehard optimist. Gets me in trouble sometimes as I too often believe good things are around the corner. In the last year that optimism has been tested for sure. In this process I would say I’ve evolved into more of a rational optimist. Hoping for good things always but realizing more than ever the reality that there are times that just ain’t so great after all.

I have appreciated all your support, your emails and welcome those who came from our sister blog, www.reversemergerblog.com. If you have any interest in considering a sponsorship of our site, with banner ads, etc., of course let me know!

Now let’s go economy……

48% of Consumers Interested in Purchasing a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are one of the most highly anticipated new product categories of recent years. Promising dramatically improved fuel economy over standard internal combustion engines, PHEVs are expected to drive significant benefits in the form of reduced carbon emissions and lesser dependence on foreign oil. According to a new survey from Pike Research, prospective consumer interest in the category is solid, with 48% stating that they would be “extremely” or “very” interested in purchasing a PHEV with a 40-mile range on a single charge.

“Plug-in hybrids match the driving requirements of most consumers we surveyed,” says managing director Clint Wheelock. “82% of respondents drive 40 miles or less per day, with an average daily driving distance of 27 miles.”

Other key findings of the survey are as follows:

• 85% of consumers stated that improved fuel efficiency would be an important factor when choosing their next vehicle.
• 65% of survey respondents interested in PHEVs expressed a willingness to pay a premium price, over and above the price of a standard gasoline vehicle, with an average premium of 12%.
• Consumers indicated that the availability of workplace, private, and public vehicle charging stations in their local area would be very important.
• 79% of consumers would be interested in investing in a fast-charging outlet for their home; however, willingness to pay is out of line with industry expectations.

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